Malaysia's Automotive TIV Forecast at 790,000 Units in 2026 – What It Means for Buyers
Kenanga Investment Bank recently projected Malaysia's total industry volume (TIV) for 2026 at 790,000 units—a figure that signals continued strength in the local automotive market. For car buyers, this isn't just an analyst's number. It's a forecast that ripples through new-car supply, used-car pricing, and the timing of your next purchase. Here's what you need to know.
What Does a 790,000-Unit TIV Actually Mean?
Total industry volume measures all new passenger and commercial vehicles registered in a calendar year. A TIV of 790,000 would represent steady growth from recent years, driven by pent-up demand, improved semiconductor supply, and Malaysia's expanding EV ecosystem.
But here's the catch: more new cars don't always mean cheaper used cars. In fact, the relationship is more nuanced.
New Supply Floods the Market—Eventually
When TIV climbs, it means Malaysians are buying more new vehicles. Those cars eventually enter the used market in three to five years, increasing supply and—theoretically—softening prices. But that's the long game. In the short term, robust new-car sales often signal strong consumer confidence and financing availability, which can prop up used-car values.
According to Urban Auto Hub's live price index (May 2025), a used Honda City medians RM71,300 in Malaysia—a figure that's held relatively firm despite rising new-car registrations over the past two years. Why? Because demand for reliable, fuel-efficient sedans remains high, and buyers who can't secure immediate delivery of a new City often turn to the used market.
Chart: Median asking prices for five popular models, sourced from Urban Auto Hub's live price index, May 2025.
Three Ways a Strong TIV Affects Your Buying Decision
1. Dealer Inventory Tightens on Popular Models
High TIV means dealerships are moving metal fast. Popular models—think Perodua Alza, Honda City, Toyota Harrier—see shorter lot times and less room for negotiation. If you're eyeing a used example of a hot-selling nameplate, expect firmer pricing and fewer concessions on accessories or warranty extensions.
Our live data shows the Perodua Alza medians RM63,800 across seven listings—a tight range that reflects limited supply and strong buyer interest. When new Alzas fly off showroom floors, used ones don't linger either.
2. Trade-In Values Hold Steady (or Rise)
A buoyant new-car market typically lifts trade-in values. Dealers need inventory to meet demand, so they're willing to pay more for clean, low-mileage trade-ins. If you're planning to sell or trade, a strong TIV year works in your favour—provided your car is in good condition and you time the market right.
Use our free car valuation tool to benchmark your vehicle's current worth against live market data before you walk into a dealership.
3. Financing Stays Competitive
Banks love a growing TIV. More registrations mean more hire-purchase contracts, which keeps lenders competitive on rates and loan-to-value ratios. If you're financing, this is the environment to lock in favourable terms—especially on models with strong residual values like the Toyota Harrier (median RM141,100) or Mazda CX-5 (median RM88,750).
Run the numbers with our hire-purchase calculator to see how rate differences affect your monthly commitment over a typical seven- or nine-year tenure.
Which Segments Benefit Most from a 790k TIV?
Not all vehicle classes ride the same wave. Kenanga's forecast likely bakes in strong SUV and crossover demand—segments that have dominated Malaysian sales charts for the past three years. Sedans, meanwhile, face headwinds as buyers shift to higher-riding alternatives.
That divergence shows up in our data. The Nissan Almera, a capable B-segment sedan, medians just RM52,800 despite its practicality and fuel economy. Compare that to the Subaru XV, a compact crossover with all-wheel drive, which sits at RM74,700—a RM21,900 premium for the SUV badge and added capability.
Chart: Median asking prices for a B-segment sedan versus a compact crossover, illustrating the SUV premium in today's market.
Should You Buy Now or Wait?
If the 790,000-unit forecast holds, expect stable-to-firm pricing on popular used models through the second half of 2026. Waiting for a dramatic price correction is unlikely unless external shocks—recession, policy changes, or a sudden glut of off-lease vehicles—hit the market.
For buyers targeting high-demand nameplates like the Honda CR-V (median RM96,800) or Ford Ranger (median RM93,900), the window to negotiate is narrow. Move decisively, verify history with our free auction sheet check if the car is an import, and secure financing early.
For sellers or traders, the message is simpler: this is a seller's market. Clean title, full service records, and low mileage will command premium valuations.
The Bottom Line
A 790,000-unit TIV isn't just a headline for industry watchers. It's a signal that Malaysia's automotive market remains robust, financing is accessible, and demand for quality used cars will stay strong. Buyers should act with urgency on popular models, while sellers can leverage tight inventory to maximise trade-in or private-sale value.
Track live pricing trends and compare models on our car price index—because in a market this active, real-time data beats guesswork every time.